More cereal production, a growing livestock sector and a steady growth of wine exports: these are some of the trends that will characterize the European Union’s agricultural market until 2030, says the EU in its latest report on the industry, “ The 2017 Agricultural Outlook Conference.”
Olive oil production on the rise
By 2030, the EU expects the olive oil market to go through “further structural improvements, (…) resulting in improved yields and higher production.” Spain and Portugal will see the highest growth. This will strengthen the EU’s position as the world’s biggest producer and exporter of olive oil. “This additional production will serve both growing world demand and increasing EU consumption, apart from in the main producing countries, i.e. Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal, where consumption will decrease further,” the report adds.
Wine and tomato production will stabilize
Where the wine production sector is concerned, the EU predicts that internal consumption will stabilize in the outlook period, after a long period of decline. Despite that, “total domestic use will decrease due to a reduction in other winemaking processes and products such as distillation, vinegar and vermouth.” Exports will maintain a steady growth, due to “strong demand for wines with a geographical indication and sparkling wines.”
As for fresh tomatoes production, the EU predicts that it will “remain relatively stable despite increasing yields driven by longer production seasons.” The report adds that “the value of production is likely to continue to rise as greater product segmentation adds value.” Fresh tomato consumption will go down, whereas processed tomato consumption will increase, “driven by higher demand as an ingredient and for food products that evoke a Mediterranean lifestyle.”
Agricultural income and utilized agricultural area will decrease
Where income is concerned, the outlook is mixed. On one hand, agricultural income “is expected to decrease considerably in real terms”; on the other, “agricultural income per worker is expected to increase slightly due to continued structural change and the numbers of people leaving agriculture.”
The EU also predicts that the utilized agricultural area will continue to decline as it has in recent years, though at a slower pace. “The same trend applies to arable land over the outlook period,” the report adds.
Cereals and livestock surge upward
These are two areas that should improve in the coming years, according to the EU. Cereal production in member-states is expected to reach 341 million t by 2030, “driven by feed demand, good export prospects (in particular for wheat) and increasing use of cereals in industry.” Prices are also expected to grow, recovering from their “current lows to above EUR 170/t on average and at close to EUR 194/t for common wheat at the end of the period.”
The livestock sector is expected to benefit from “steadily growing world demand and affordable feed prices,” which could “open the way for the “EU dairy sector to expand in response to increasing global and domestic demand.”
Poultry exports are set to continue growing, while pigmeat production will increase marginally due to export demand. Beef production, on the contrary, is expected to decline.