What will agriculture around the world look like in 2028? USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) recently published a report with predictions for the next decade.
Here are some of them.
1. Most growth will come from emerging economies
By 2028/29, the international agricultural commodities trade will keep growing. This development will be motivated by an increase in per capita income, which the USDA believes will remain strong, and by population growth in many developing countries. This increase in population will lead to a higher demand for food and feed.
Thus, the increase in consumption and imports of basic agricultural commodities over the next decade will be particularly influenced by developing economies.
2. The Russian ban will probably continue
In 2014, Russia implemented a ban on agricultural imports from Western countries (including the USA, EU, and Canada). Since then, it’s been renewed every year. “We assume this policy will continue to be renewed and that Russia will continue to use policies to stimulate its domestic pork and poultry production and to reduce its reliance on imports.”
3. Corn trade will increase the most
Until 2028/29, global corn trade should grow by 32.5% or 32 million tons. “Mexico, Vietnam, Egypt, Iran, China, and Saudi Arabia account for a little over 63 percent of this increased import demand.”
4. Meat consumption and trade will grow
Global per capita consumption of meat is considerably lower than the consumption levels in high-income countries, which means there’s “potential for continued growth in world meat consumption,” according to the USDA.
Indeed, it seems like that’s where we’re headed.
Global meat consumption is going to increase by 15% – 47.9 million tons – until 2028. Developing countries will account for 80% of this growth. Consequently, international meat trade is going to increase by 25%.
This evolution should drive higher production and trade of coarse grains, oilseeds and livestock and meat products.
5. Crop production will expand, partly due to new technologies
According to the USDA, “growth in global agricultural production is sufficient to meet growing global demand and will sustain commodity prices at relatively low prices” over the next decade.
Two main reasons will drive the growth of crop production: yield growth and area expansion. In certain countries – Brazil, in particular – one of the factors behind the increase in agricultural production will be the usage of new technologies for agriculture, which allow farmers to be more efficient.